CentristNet Blog

Dedicated To Providing Objective Information and Centrist Analysis of the American Political System.
November 2, 2010

Historic Landslide For GOP Ongoing – 71+ House Seats to Switch

Author: AHFF Geoff - Categories: Daily Content - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

God Bless America and her people's voice as is being expressed today

As has been well-documented by other online journalists, both recently and during the runup to the passage of Obamacare, the Democratic Party is finally paying the ultimate price for ignoring the will of the American people today. As voting continues this afternoon, many media personalities are attempting to manipulate the American people into foregoing today’s vote, but the American public appears to have finally smartened up to the base Marxist impulses of the current leaders of the Democratic party.

One can only hope, and pray, that the historic smackdown being received by the Democrats in today’s midterm elections will teach the insiders of the Democratic party to avoid such anti-American, Marxist policy advocacy in the future. Today’s election landslide should not completely be seen as an endorsement of GOP policies, however, as both parties must now put aside their idiotic partisanship and cooperate to create the necessary business environment in America so as to allow investment money properly flow back into job-creating endeavors. All Americans, and those folks in America via legal immigration, surely are praying that the fatcat federal politicians finally are getting their wakeup call from the American voting public and act accordingly in the nation’s best interest instead of their own. Perhaps God is finally smiling down on America again with today’s election and we can once again be that shining City on the Hill, an example to the rest of the world to follow.

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March 9, 2010

Gallup: GOP Dominating Voter Enthusiasm for 2010 Elections; UPDATE: Left Wing Bloggers Sound Alarm

Author: AHFF Geoff - Categories: Daily Content - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The GOP Holds a Substantial Edge Amongst Enthusiastic Voters Heading into the November 2010 Elections

Gallup is out with a new poll today regarding the upcoming 2010 midterm elections of about 1500 registered voters over the first week of March 2010.  The most significant finding from the polling is that the Republican-supporting voters are substantially more enthusiastic than Democrat-supporting voters, with a full 18 point gap between the parties amongst those “very enthusiastic” about voting in 2010.   The Gallup release, of course, buries the lede by trumpeting in its headline and throughout its release that the Democrats hold a slim 47% to 44% lead amongst all registered voters, while failing to even release its views on the likely voter turnout split.    Gallup’s release:

PRINCETON, NJ — Democrats lead Republicans by a slight 47% to 44% margin when registered voters are asked which party’s congressional candidate they would support in their district “if the elections for Congress were being held today.”At the same time, Gallup’s inaugural weekly tracking update on the 2010 elections shows Republicans with a distinct advantage over Democrats in terms of enthusiasm about voting this year.

While Gallup alludes in its opening paragraph to significant GOP strength in likely voters, nowhere in its release does Gallup actually state its findings on the margin between the parties amongst likely voters. Other pollsters have released numbers regarding the 2010 preferences of likely voters and have found a small but consistent GOP lead: Rasmussen Reports (GOP +8, 44/36) , James Carville’s Democracy Corps (GOP +3, 47/44), Democratic pollster PPP (GOP +3, 43/30), GOP pollster McLaughlin Group (GOP +7, 47/40) are examples. Gallup breaks out its “enthusiasm” numbers in detail instead:

Republican-leaning Voters Have an 18 Point Enthusiasm Advantage over their Democratic counterparts Regarding Voting in November 2010

Gallup’s reported enthusiasm gap, eighteen points amongst those “very enthusiastic” to vote in November 2010 and fourteen points amongst all those either “very” or “somewhat” enthusiastic about voting, almost certainly translates into a lead of at least a few points for the GOP amongst “likely” voters instead of the broader registered voters metric. As noted above, other pollsters, even those from the left, back up those conclusions about likely voters.

Another final warning sign for Democrats regarding turnout in the Gallup report relates to young voters – who apparently are not too enthusiastic about voting in November 2010. Gallup dryly notes that the “apparent lack of motivation to vote — if it continues until Election Day — could deprive Democrats of the full benefit they could in theory derive if all 18- to 29-year-olds were to vote.” Well, of course the Democrats would benefit if all young voters were to turn out in November 2010 – Gallup’s restatement of this fact is another example of Gallup’s attempt to spin the very negative data produced by their polling.   Indeed, if all over 65 voters “were to vote”, the Republican Party would gain a significant benefit because older voters are trending GOP, especially now as a strong majority of older voters oppose the Democratic comprehensive health care reform plans.

Young Voters Are Not Enthusiastic About Voting in November 2010, Especially When Compared to Older Voters

To summarize, Gallup findings, as buttressed by James Carville’s Democracy Corps polling, Democratic pollster PPP’s polling, GOP pollster McLaughlin Group’s polling, and Rasmussen Report’s polling, clearly indicate that the GOP is in a strong position to make significant gains in the November 2010 elections because Republican-leaning voters are much more likely to vote than Democrat-leaning voters. As the health care reform endgame plays out this week and next in Washington, this batch of polling data will undoubtedly be a topic of discussion for politicians of all stripes as decision time on their individual votes draws near.

UPDATE: While the establishment media has had little to say about the results of this Gallup survey and the supporting data from other pollsters, left wing bloggers are today sounding the alarm about the paucity of Democratic enthusiasm to vote in November 2010. Of course, the left wing spin on these numbers is that the Democrats must ram through the unpopular comprehensive health care reform bill to remedy the problem:

Only twenty four percent of Dems and Dem leaners — that would be less than one fourth — are “very enthusiastic” about voting in 2010. And a startlingly high 44%, nearly half, are “not enthusiastic.”

Meanwhile, 42% of Republican voters are very enthusiastic, versus only 30% who are not enthusiastic. Those are more or less mirror images of each other. Indeed, the percentage of Dems who are not enthusiastic is almost exactly the same as the percentage of Republicans who are very enthusiastic!

One other clear measure of how much the bloom is off the Obama rose: Only 20% of voters 18-29 are very enthusiastic.

Dems might want to think about giving their base voters something to get enthusiastic about. Maybe a health care reform signing ceremony in the Rose Garden, perhaps? It’s hard to picture these enthusiasm numbers getting worse for Dems, but imagine if reform failed!

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February 24, 2010

Obama 2012 Begins Operations: Hatch Act Violations?

Author: AHFF Geoff - Categories: Daily Content - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Senior White House Advisor David Axelrod (left) and Deputy White House Chief of Staff Jim Messina (right) have initiated Obama 2012 reelection activities according to the Politico exclusive reporting

Nearly three years before a possible reelection vote for President Obama in November 2012, Barack Obama has initiated 2012 campaign activities in the past few weeks according to an exclusive report from Politico’s Mike Allen.:

President Barack Obama’s top advisers are quietly laying the groundwork for the 2012 reelection campaign, which is likely to be run out of Chicago and managed by White House deputy chief of staff Jim Messina, according to Democrats familiar with the discussions.

The planning for now consists entirely of private conversations, with Obama aides at all levels indulging occasionally in closed-door 2012 discussions while focusing ferociously on the midterm elections and health care reform, the Democratic sources said. “The gathering storm is the 2010 elections,” one top official said.

But the sources said Obama has given every sign of planning to run again, and wants the next campaign to resemble the highly successful 2008 effort.

David Axelrod, White House senior adviser, may leave the West Wing to rejoin his family in Chicago and reprise his role as Obama’s muse, overseeing the campaign’s tone, themes, messages and advertising, the sources said.

David Plouffe, the Obama for America campaign manager, described by one friend as “the father of all this,” will be a central player in the reelect, perhaps as an outside adviser.

“The conversations are beginning, but decisions haven’t been made,” a top official said. “If you look at David Plouffe’s stepped-up level of activity with the political organization [as an outside adviser on the 2010 races], that is obviously the beginning of the process.”

This disclosure of the ongoing Obama 2012 campaign work in the White House with “Obama aides at all levels indulging occasionally in closed-door 2012 discussions” could be construed as a possible violation of the Hatch Act, which prohibits federal employees from engaging in political activities. The key question regarding a Hatch Act violation would be if any of the “Obama aides” involved in “closed-door 2012 discussions” are outside of the exemptions of the Hatch Act, as such exemption covers federal employees paid via an appropriation for the Executive Office of the President or federal employees that are nominated and confirmed by the Senate.

If federal employees who are not subject to the exemption are shown to have participated in the nascent Obama 2012 activities, such activities may be in violation of the Hatch Act as non-exempt employees are prohibited from “doing political work while on duty, in uniform, in the office or in a government vehicle.” The exempt political appointees of the President can engage in political activities “provided their actions don’t amount to coercive use of the office to which they have been appointed. They cannot pay for political activities with taxpayer dollars, however.” The use of taxpayer dollars in furtherance of the Obama 2012 campaign by “Obama aides at all levels” during “closed door” discussions in federally-funded offices and/or travel to Chicago (where Politico reports Obama 2012 is based) could be violations of the Hatch Act.

Following this exclusive disclosure of these Obama 2012 activities by Politico, in the midst of the battle over passing Obamacare, the media is sure to attempt in the days to come to identify each and every one of the “Obama aides at all levels” who were engaging in such Obama 2012 activities and whether their political activities amounted to Hatch Act violations.

UPDATE: Hotair points out that Obama was just weeks ago talking about being a “great” one term President:

Didn’t The One tell us just a few weeks ago that he’d rather be a great one-term president than a mediocre two-termer? I guess he’s … planning for mediocrity, then?

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February 15, 2010

Maryland Democratic Senator Barbara Mikulski To Retire, Not Seek Reelection in November 2010

Author: AHFF Geoff - Categories: Daily Content - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Speculation mounts that Democratic Senator Barbara Mikulski may retire

Coming hot on the heels of Indiana Democratic Senator Evan Bayh’s announcement today that he would not run for reelection in November 2010, speculation is mounting that another senior Democratic Senator, Barbara Mikulski, will herself announce retirement plans this week. Considered a safe Democratic seat before today, Mikulski’s possible announcement later this week could further enhance the GOP’s chances for Senate pickups in the 2010 midterm elections. A tea party-affiliated blogger breaks the news:

I’ve just heard from an impeccable source that Barbara Mikulski, the Democratic Senator who is up for reelection this November, will choose to retire. Mrs. Mikulski is expected to make her formal announcement in the next few days.

Mrs. Mikulski seriously fractured her right ankle last fall just prior to Edward M. Kennedy’s death. Due to the severity of the fracture, she had to have open reduction surgery, that included the insertion of pins, as well as the use of special surgical boots, during recovery. She had tried to arrive in time for Mr. Kennedy’s funeral but was turned away.

Her recovery has been exceptionally slow and she is evidently still in a great deal of pain. Reportedly, she has told her physician that she does not desire to seek reelection. Additionally, friends and family have been saying in the near future she will announce her retirement. Because of the very slow recovery, she has been forced to use a wheelchair, a walker or a cane in order to get around.

One of her complaints is that the health insurance that is provided for Congress is “poor” with high deductibles and “limitations” on coverage. My contact tells me that she told an aide that she should have inserted in the ObamaCare bill an amendment to improve Congressional health insurance!
Mrs. Mikulski was first elected to the Senate in 1986, and thus is a very senior member of the Democratic caucus. Despite this seniority, she has never been offered any important chairmanships or leadership positions. Born on July 20, 1936, she is 74 years old, come July…it is perhaps fitting that she has choose this year to retire.

Her possible announcement along with that of Evan Bayh and Byron Dorgan of ND will the third Democratic Senator announcing plans to retire. This gives the estimate of Michael Barone, a statistician and columnist for the Washington Examiner much more “legs” than previously. Especially when tied to the election of Scott Brown, (R) of Massachusetts.

Mr. Barone has looked closely at the all of the 435 Congressional districts as well as the 33 Senatorial campaigns from the 2008 election. He then took the gubernatorial elections from last November in New Jersey and Virginia as well as the Senatorial campaign in Massachusetts from last month. His conclusion is that only 103 of the 259 Democratic Party’s seats can be considered to be “safe”. Additionally, by his calculation, only 1 of the 17 Democratic Senator’s up for reelection this year can be considered to be “safe” as well (Charles Schumer of NY).

Should Mikulski actually retire, the field would be wide open, and it is expected that former Republican Maryland Governor Robert Ehrlich would enter the race and perhaps instantly become the front runner in the November 2010 race. As of now, former Governor Ehrlich is considering another run at the Governor’s mansion in Annapolis, these considerations would surely change should Mikulski retire. It is clear that the political reverberations from the Scott Brown victory in the Massachusetts Senate special election race continue unabated as seemingly safe Democratic Senate incumbents like Mikulski seriously ponder retirement instead of a facing an incumbent-unfriendly fall race.

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