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Posts Tagged ‘Evan Bayh’

Obama Reconciliation Strategy Rallies Moderate Democrats

Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010

Democratic Senators are Rallying Around Obama's Health Plan and the Use of the Reconciliation Process

In the wake of the release of the 11 page Obama Health Plan, which clearly envisions the use of the parliamentary procedure known as reconciliation, moderate Democratic Senators who are on record opposing the use of reconciliation for Obamacare are now reversing themselves. Senators Evan Bayh (D-Ind.), Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.), Ben Nelson (D-Ne.) and Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.), who all previously stated their opposition to the reconciliation procedure, are signaling that their opposition to reconciliation is now waning. Additionally, some House Democrats who previously opposed the Senate bill are also softening their opposition. Both House and Senate Democrats appear both impressed by Obama’s release of his own plan as well as accepting the Obama Administration’s argument that a bad bill is better than no bill for Democratic electoral prospects in November 2010. Obama’s strategy to paint the GOP as obstructionists is also helping garner Democratic support for the use of reconciliation. Indeed, as Thursday’s health care summit approaches, the continual White House assertions of GOP intransigence on health care appear to be paying off by providing moderate Democrats political cover to abandon their prior anti-reconciliation stances.

Politico’s Carrie Budoff Brown reports:

An idea that seemed toxic only weeks ago — using a parliamentary tactic to ram health reform through the Senate — is gaining acceptance among moderate Democrats who have resisted the strategy but now say GOP opposition may force their hands.

The implications of the subtle shift among this small group of centrist senators could mean the difference between success and failure for health care reform — giving Democrats a potential road map for passing a bill that had been left for dead after the Massachusetts Senate defeat.

That mood in the Senate was matched Tuesday by a growing momentum for President Barack Obama’s health care proposal in the House, where Democrats were beginning to coalesce around the view that passing a flawed bill is better than passing none at all.

These shifts couldn’t come at a better time for Obama ahead of Thursday’s health care summit. The White House has signaled he’s prepared to use reconciliation, which would require just 51 votes to pass health reform.

The comments also seemed to reflect the early soundings of a Democratic strategy for selling the public on the tactic, especially if no Republicans sign on to Obama’s plan after the summit: The GOP made us do it.

“Obviously, if the minority is just frustrating the process, that argues for taking steps to get the public’s business done,” said Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.), who was one of the leading voices against the procedure after the Massachusetts election, calling it “very ill-advised.”

“At the same time … Republicans would probably shut the place down, but you could argue they are doing that anyway,” Bayh said.

Bayh’s remarks Tuesday came a day after Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) cited Republican obstructionism as a reason why she could embrace the parliamentary maneuver to pass health care reform. Last month, she said she was leaning against reconciliation.

“I’m staying open to see how these negotiations go forward,” Landrieu said. “I’ve not generally been a big supporter, but the Republican Party, the leadership, has really been very, very, very disingenuous in this process.”

Sen. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.) said he doesn’t prefer reconciliation, but it may be the only way.

“I’d like to see as many votes as possible,” he said. “But at the end of the day, with the obstructionism going on at the level that it is, I’m more interested in what’s in the package than I am in the process of how many votes it takes to get it through.”

To be sure, the hints on reconciliation do not signal any kind of ironclad commitment. Democrats remain hesitant about using the procedure, fearful that Republicans will be successful in convincing voters that it is an end-run around the normal legislative process.

However, it is a mixed bag for Democrats in the past few days, as shown by Steny Hoyer’s comments earlier today that “[w]e may not be able to do” a comprehensive health care reform bill. Some moderate House Democrats also voiced disapproval with Obama’s new strategy, including Blue Dog leader Heath Shuler (D-Pa.) and Jason Altmire (D-Pa.). Considering today’s shift of moderate Democratic Senators towards supporting Obama’s plan to use reconciliation, the tougher battle for Obama may now lie with finding 218 votes from the House of Representatives, especially as perhaps as many as 60 Democratic House members are facing defeat in November 2010. The Associated Press outlines the importance of Thursday’s summit and the uncertainty of House passage:

If Obama fails on a comprehensive health care overhaul where Bill Clinton and other presidents failed before him, the chance won’t come around again anytime soon.

The whole endeavor will now rise or fall on Obama’s ability to sell his plan at the summit Thursday, and the reaction from lawmakers and the public in the days ahead.

Some rank-and-file Democrats were openly skeptical that the White House and congressional leaders could pull it off. Rep. Jason Altmire, D-Pa., a moderate who opposed the health legislation when it passed the House, questioned whether Speaker Nancy Pelosi could hang on to the votes that allowed her to get the bill through 220-215 in November. Since then a couple of Democrats have left the House, and Pelosi may also lose votes from anti-abortion Democrats who oppose the less restrictive abortion language in the Senate bill, which Obama kept in his plan.

“Is she going to be able to hold everybody that was for it before?” Altmire asked. “What about the marginal members in the middle who got hammered over this vote and would love a second chance to perhaps go against it?”

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Evan Bayh Bluntly States Congress has Created Zero Jobs

Tuesday, February 16th, 2010

After a day of attacks from the Left after his retirement annoucement, Evan Bayh slams the Democratic Congress's handling of job creation

Freed up from concerns about the wrath of the Obama Administration or the Democratic Party after his shock retirement yesterday, and perhaps troubled by the harsh personal attacks from the left in the wake of his announcement, Evan Bayh today slammed the Democratic-controlled Congress as creating no jobs to help the economy and workers through the ongoing economic slowdown in America. Bayh was responding to a question about his position, as enunciated at his retirement press conference yesterday, that he could help his constituents more outside of Congress than in. Politico reports on Bayh’s CBS “Early Show” appearance this morning:

Evan Bayh (D-Ind.) is retiring, but he’s not the retiring type, ridiculing congressional job creation efforts — i.e., the stimulus — on “The Early Show.”

“If I could create one job in the private sector by helping to grow a business, that would be one more than Congress has created in the last six months,” Bayh said.

The White House is no doubt smarting this very moment over the cutting nature of Bayh’s attack, as such sentiments have been pouring forth from GOP politicians ever since the January/February 2009 Stimulus debate. When Scott Brown made a similar comment just two weeks ago, the White House went into full spin mode, attacking Brown harshly, as reported by ABC:

Minutes after he was sworn in by Vice President Biden, newly minted Senator Scott Brown (R-MA) says the stimulus “hasn’t created one new job.”

The comments came at Brown’s first press conference as a U.S. Senator when I asked him if he is willing to work with Democrats on a jobs bill. Based on his response, that seems unlikely.

“The last stimulus bill didn’t create one new job and in some states the money that was actually released hasn’t even been used yet,” Brown said.

“It didn’t create one new job?” I asked.

“That’s correct. We lost another 85,000 jobs again, give or take last month,” he responded. “And in Massachusetts, it hasn’t created one new job and throughout the country as well. It may have retained some but it hasn’t created any new jobs. I need to see the bill.”

…..

The Obama Administration says Brown’s got his facts wrong.

“Economists of all political points of view, including those from the non-partisan CBO, estimate that the Recovery Act has created or saved between 1.5 – 2.4 million jobs across America,” said Jay Carney, spokesman for Vice President Joe Biden, the administration’s top Recovery Act booster and watchdog.

“Unemployment is far too high, which is why the President is so focused on jobs. But it is beyond dispute that if it were not for the Recovery Act, as many as 2.4 million more Americans would be unemployed today.”

More Carney: “Anyone can go to Recovery.gov and see that MA state and local government, businesses and community organizations have already reported directly funding over 9,000 jobs in the state last year – and that’s based on a only a portion of the total $8.4 billion in Recovery funds that have already gone to MA.

So far, the White House has had no response to Bayh’s comments whatsoever, showing what a difference the source of a similar comment can make to the White House’s response. The perception of Bayh as now being free to speak his mind, and newly frank views being quite similar to prior GOP attacks on the Democratic-controlled 111th Congress, will surely rile the establishment media and political blogosphere and ensure the Bayh shock retirement story continues to occupy a substantial portion of the overall news cycle for days to come.

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UPDATED: Dem Darkhorse D’Ippolito Races to secure 4500 Signatures by Tomorrow’s Noon Deadline; Next 19 Hours Could Determine Control of Senate in 2011; Link to Indiana Form for Signatures Added

Monday, February 15th, 2010

Darkhorse liberal Democratic Candidate Tamyra D'Ippolito

Democratic Senator Evan Bayh’s shocking retirement announcement has unleashed some frantic maneuvering in both DC and Indiana, as tomorrow’s noon deadline looms for any candidates wishing to compete in the Democratic Senatorial primary race. As of Bayh’s withdrawal announcement today, there are no candidates qualified for the primary race. It appears at this hour that the establishment Democrats, such as Indiana Dem. Reps. Baron Hill and Brad Ellsworth, are not attempting to meet tomorrow’s deadline for the primary. Instead, Indiana Democrats hope to appoint a Senate nominee in a caucus process, bypassing primary voting by the people of Indiana. However, those well laid Democratic plans may be disrupted by a darkhorse candidate, liberal Democrat Tamyra D’Ippolito, a local restaurant owner. Politico’s Jonathan Martin explains the facts on the ground as of this afternoon:

A Bloomington, Ind., restaurant owner who had been running an obscure and uphill challenge against Sen. Evan Bayh for the Democratic nomination claimed Monday that she’s just 1,000 signatures short of qualifying for the ballot.

In an interview with POLITICO, Tamyra D’Ippolito said that after news broke Monday morning that Bayh was retiring, her campaign contacted Democratic officials in Indiana to request they help her get the needed signatures by noon Tuesday — when they must be verified by the state’s 92 country registrars.

It would be something close to a nightmare scenario for Democrats: were D’Ippolito to qualify for the ballot, she would be the likely nominee and the party would be left to face the GOP with a political neophyte who said she is running in part to take on a party establishment she said practices “sexism with a big S.”

It’s precisely what Bayh had hoped to avoid. By disclosing his retirement one day before the filing deadline, the idea was that no Democrat would qualify for the primary ballot and the party’s state central committee could tap their favored candidate.

It was not possible to verify D’Ippolito’s claim about how many signatures she’s collected. To qualify for the statewide ballot in Indiana, candidates need 500 verified voter signatures from each of the state’s nine congressional districts.

But in the mad scramble following Bayh’s surprise decision, worried Democrats in Washington and Indianapolis were taking the prospect seriously.

“This would be a complete and unmitigated disaster,” said a leading Democrat in the state. “We’d be up shit’s creek.”

Should the longshot candidacy of Tamyra D’Ippolito gain entry into the Democratic Senatorial primary, set for May 4, 2010, Indiana Democrats will have two choices: they can attempt to somehow disqualify Ms. D’Ippolito, perhaps attacking the validity of her possible 4500 signatures, or they can get behind the strongly liberal D’Ippolito for the general election. As noted by Martin above, D’Ippolito’s campaign claims it is only 1000 signatures away from the 4500 required and that they have requested assistance from the Indiana Democratic Party – no word yet on whether such assistance is forthcoming.

Indeed, should D’Ippolito submit 4500 signatures by noon tomorrow, it may be that the Democrats will be stuck with D’Ippolito whether attempts are made to invalidate some signatures or not. If D’Ippolito can compile the required 4500 signatures, and they are “verified by the state’s 92 country registrars,” the race for the Indiana Senate seat will become a strong lean Republican for November 2010 as Indiana remains a conservative state that is unlikely to elect a strong liberal like D’Ippolito, who’s candidacy had previously been animated by opposition to Bayh’s attempts to moderate the Democratic health care reform bill. Looking at Rasmussen’s last Indiana poll, which had Bayh leading former GOP House Rep. Hostettler by 3 points, the Democratic health care reform bill is extraordinarily unpopular in Indiana, disapproved by a 23 point margin:

As in many other states, there is a strong correlation between support for the congressional health care plan and voting behavior. Just 37% of Indiana voters favor the plan, while 60% oppose it. Those figures are similar to the national average and include 16% who Strongly Favor the plan and 48% who are Strongly Opposed.

Those who Strongly Favor the plan overwhelmingly prefer Bayh. Among those who are Strongly Opposed, 80% say they’d vote for Pence, 70% for Hostettler and 56% for Stutzman. In Stutzman’s case, 17% of those who Strongly Oppose the plan would vote for Bayh, and 26% are either not sure or would prefer a third option.

In 2008, Barack Obama narrowly carried Indiana with 50% of the vote. However, just 43% of Hoosier voters currently approve of the way Obama is performing his role as president. That decline is consistent with the national trend as measured in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Fifty-six percent (56%) of Indiana voters now disapprove of the president’s performance. The current figures include 16% who Strongly Approve and 48% who Strongly Disapprove.

In the face of such extraordinary opposition to the Democratic health care reform bills in Indiana, it appears highly unlikely that a Democratic candidate like D’Ippolito, who is in favor of more far-reaching, government-centric reform than is presently on the table in Washington, will have any chance of winning the Indiana Senate seat in November 2010. Accordingly, the next 19 hours could determine who controls the United States Senate in the 112th Congress after the 2010 Election. Larry Sabato, an esteemed non-partisan political analyst, predicts now that GOP wins in 7 or perhaps 8 seats. Should Indiana move to a easy pickup for the GOP in the coming months, as it will if D’Ippolito gets on the ballot, the chances of a 9 seat pickup for the GOP improves substantially. As the split is presently 59/41, a 9 seat pickup would create a 50/50 split, making Joe Lieberman the potential kingmaker in the 112th Congress Senate chamber, while also putting a premium and likely more national money on longshot GOP bids in Maryland, Wisconsin, New York and Washington.

For now, Martin reports that D’Ippolito is trying to capture the insurgent, outsider energy by attacking the “stonewalling” by the Indiana Democratic Party regarding her signature efforts while activists from the left and right are pushing her candidacy strongly:

D’Ippolito said she was working diligently to get the needed signatures but was still lagging, especially in the 8th District which is in the southwest corner of the state.

She said she wasn’t certain she’d qualify because, as she put it, Bayh-backing Democratic officials “have been stonewalling us for four months.”

A DSCC official conceded that after the Bayh shocker they were still trying to determine who exactly D’Ippolito was and whether she could qualify.

“I’m told it’s unlikely she gets this done,” said the official, more hopeful than confident.

Conservative and liberal activists, with varying motives, also began to rally around D’Ippolito Monday.

The liberal blog Firedoglake offered a friendly write-up and a link to her petitions.

And conservatives saw it as an opportunity to wreak havoc among their foes.

“This could be fun,” wrote RedState blogger Erick Erickson. “Those of you in Indiana should go out of your way to help Tamyra get the signatures he needs by tomorrow at noon.”

For any readers interested in signing potential Democratic Senatorial candidate D’Ippolito’s petition to gain access to the primary, your best bet is to stop by her restaurant tonight, according to her Facebook page:

People are welcome to come in and sign tonight at Ragazzi’s. I have plenty of petitions. Just call me first because I am in and out. 323-9005. Have customers at 6:30 pm but not sure they will make it today in with the snow.

UPDATE: As pointed out by Ace (thanks for the link), any Indiana resident who wants to support Ms. D’Ippolito’s quest to qualify for placement on the May 2010 Democratic Senate primary ballot, please see this link, which will take you to a form which you can fill out and drop off at your local registrar’s by the noon deadline tomorrow.

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Maryland Democratic Senator Barbara Mikulski To Retire, Not Seek Reelection in November 2010

Monday, February 15th, 2010

Speculation mounts that Democratic Senator Barbara Mikulski may retire

Coming hot on the heels of Indiana Democratic Senator Evan Bayh’s announcement today that he would not run for reelection in November 2010, speculation is mounting that another senior Democratic Senator, Barbara Mikulski, will herself announce retirement plans this week. Considered a safe Democratic seat before today, Mikulski’s possible announcement later this week could further enhance the GOP’s chances for Senate pickups in the 2010 midterm elections. A tea party-affiliated blogger breaks the news:

I’ve just heard from an impeccable source that Barbara Mikulski, the Democratic Senator who is up for reelection this November, will choose to retire. Mrs. Mikulski is expected to make her formal announcement in the next few days.

Mrs. Mikulski seriously fractured her right ankle last fall just prior to Edward M. Kennedy’s death. Due to the severity of the fracture, she had to have open reduction surgery, that included the insertion of pins, as well as the use of special surgical boots, during recovery. She had tried to arrive in time for Mr. Kennedy’s funeral but was turned away.

Her recovery has been exceptionally slow and she is evidently still in a great deal of pain. Reportedly, she has told her physician that she does not desire to seek reelection. Additionally, friends and family have been saying in the near future she will announce her retirement. Because of the very slow recovery, she has been forced to use a wheelchair, a walker or a cane in order to get around.

One of her complaints is that the health insurance that is provided for Congress is “poor” with high deductibles and “limitations” on coverage. My contact tells me that she told an aide that she should have inserted in the ObamaCare bill an amendment to improve Congressional health insurance!
Mrs. Mikulski was first elected to the Senate in 1986, and thus is a very senior member of the Democratic caucus. Despite this seniority, she has never been offered any important chairmanships or leadership positions. Born on July 20, 1936, she is 74 years old, come July…it is perhaps fitting that she has choose this year to retire.

Her possible announcement along with that of Evan Bayh and Byron Dorgan of ND will the third Democratic Senator announcing plans to retire. This gives the estimate of Michael Barone, a statistician and columnist for the Washington Examiner much more “legs” than previously. Especially when tied to the election of Scott Brown, (R) of Massachusetts.

Mr. Barone has looked closely at the all of the 435 Congressional districts as well as the 33 Senatorial campaigns from the 2008 election. He then took the gubernatorial elections from last November in New Jersey and Virginia as well as the Senatorial campaign in Massachusetts from last month. His conclusion is that only 103 of the 259 Democratic Party’s seats can be considered to be “safe”. Additionally, by his calculation, only 1 of the 17 Democratic Senator’s up for reelection this year can be considered to be “safe” as well (Charles Schumer of NY).

Should Mikulski actually retire, the field would be wide open, and it is expected that former Republican Maryland Governor Robert Ehrlich would enter the race and perhaps instantly become the front runner in the November 2010 race. As of now, former Governor Ehrlich is considering another run at the Governor’s mansion in Annapolis, these considerations would surely change should Mikulski retire. It is clear that the political reverberations from the Scott Brown victory in the Massachusetts Senate special election race continue unabated as seemingly safe Democratic Senate incumbents like Mikulski seriously ponder retirement instead of a facing an incumbent-unfriendly fall race.

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UPDATED – Evan Bayh Will Not Seek Reelection – Dems Face Tomorrow Deadline for New Candidate

Monday, February 15th, 2010

Indiana Democratic Senator Evan Bayh to announce retirement plans today

In a shock announcement set for later today, moderate Indiana Democratic Senator Evan Bayh will disclose that he will not seek reelection to the United States Senate in November 2010. Bayh’s retirement plans follow close on the heels of the announcement by House member Patrick Kennedy (D-RI) that he also will not seek reelection.

The Washington Post broke the story minutes ago:

Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh will not seek re-election this year, a decision that hands Republicans a prime pickup opportunity in the middle of the country.

“After all these years, my passion for service to my fellow citizens is undiminished, but my desire to do so by serving in Congress has waned,” Bayh will say.

Bayh will announce the decision at a press conference later today. He was first elected to the Senate in 1998 and was re-elected easily in 2004. National Republicans had recruited former Sen. Dan Coats to challenge Bayh in 2010 although polling suggested Bayh began the race with a 20-point edge. He also had $13 million in the bank at the end of the year.

Prior to being in the Senate, Bayh served two terms as governor of the Hoosier State.

Bayh points to his “waned” “desire” for “service to my fellow citizens” via service in Congress. The Scott Brown election to the Massactuetts Senate seat formerly held by Teddy Kennedy last month may have played a role in Bayh’s thinking. Considering the bankroll Bayh’s reelection campaign is carrying ($13 million) and his lead now in the polls, Bayh’s surprise announcement will surely be scrutinized by the political world for Bayh’s true rationale and the effects on politicians planning to remain in DC.

UPDATE: Ed Morrissey from Hotair.com (thanks for the link!) points out that the Democrats literally have only 29 hours from noon today to find a new candidate to file paperwork by tomorrow’s deadline for Indiana Senate candidates. Top candidates from a “reasonable bench” of Indiana Democrats:

Dems have a reasonable bench in the Hoosier State, and any of the 3 Dems who beat GOPers in ’06 — Reps. Joe Donnelly (D), Brad Ellsworth (D) and Baron Hill (D) — would fit the mold as centrists in a center-right state. Hill has said he is likely to run for GOV in ’12. Dems may also turn to ex-Gov. Joe Kernan (D) or ex-DNC chair Joe Andrew.

The Bayh news will surely lead the political news cycle for at least the next two days as the shock of Bayh’s sudden “waned” “desire” for “service to my fellow citizens” via service in Congress impacts the Democratic establishment in DC and the mainstream media while the drama of the impending 29-hour deadline for a new candidate plays out.

UPDATE #2: Speculation as to Bayh’s motives has turned to possible Bayh 2012 aspirations to challenge President Barack Obama in the Democratic Presidential primaries from the center-left. Bayh had been moving to distance himself from the Democratic health care reform initiative in the weeks after Scott Brown’s election in Massachusetts, going so far as to post on his official Senate website a call to avoid the use of reconciliation to pass health care reform:

Washington– Two centrist senators Tuesday threw up a roadblock to salvaging President Barack Obama’s health-care overhaul, as Democrats agonized over whether to push forward or shift to idle until political resistance subsides.

Sens. Evan Bayh, D-Ind., and Blanche Lincoln, D-Ark., both facing re-election this year in Republican-leaning states, said they would oppose the strategy Democratic leaders are considering to reconcile the House and Senate bills and put comprehensive legislation on Obama’s desk.

That approach involves reconciliation, a special budget-related procedure that requires only 51 votes to advance. The strategy to get around Republican opponents in the Senate would be a calculated risk sure to inflame critics on the political right.

“My concern is that if reconciliation is used, that will really destroy any prospects for bipartisan cooperation on anything else for the remainder of this year,” Bayh said. “That would be a regrettable state of affairs, something I think the American public would not react well to.”

Indeed, the day after the Scott Brown election shocker Evan Bayh plainly split with Obama by stating that whenever “you have just the furthest left elements of the Dem party attempting to impose their will on the rest of the country — that’s not going to work too well.” However, also about three weeks ago, Bayh specifically debunked rumors of a 2012 run:

Bayh said he wouldn’t challenge President Barack Obama for reelection in 2012 as an independent or Democratic candidate when asked by Fox News anchor Neil Cavuto.

“I’m not running for president, I’m trying to do what’s right for my state and our country,” Bayh said. “And I’m willing to work with the president, Republicans — anybody — to get that job done.”

It would be unusual though not unprecedented for a sitting senator to challenge a president of his own party. It would raise eyebrows for Bayh, especially, to do so, given the number of meetings he’s had with the president over the past year.

“I don’t know what to think of that, except the people who wrote that have too much time on their hands,” the Indiana centrist said. “I’m focused on one thing and one thing only: trying to do a good job of representing the people of my state.”

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