Centrist Net

Age of Post-Partisanship Ends After 17 Days

Fans of centrist governance were disappointed this evening as President Barack Obama strongly signaled a return to the polarizing ideological battles of years and campaigns past.  Obama’s first use of Air Force One as President was to travel to the House Democratic retreat in Williamsburg and deliver the most partisan speech of his young presidency.   The President let loose with familiar campaign talking points such as the “failed policies of the past” in reference to Republican opposition to the stimulus package moving through Congress.

The Democratic retreat was slated to be closed to the media until this evening, when all the networks were invited in to record Obama’s speech.  The clear intent of the move was to control the media cycle through the weekend and perhaps mark a clean break from the relentless media focus on unpopular aspects of the House and Senate packages.  Whether Obama will succeed with tonight’s speech remains an open question.  However, tonight marks the end of the rhetoric of bipartisanship which played a prominent role in the campaign.

Faced with an erosion of 10-15% support of his stimulus package over the past few weeks, Obama faced his first political crisis and responded by launching into starkly partisan rhetoric while also pushing the virtues of the present make up of the bill.   A bipartisan group of Senators have been discussing the package and trying to work out a compromise, unified by their distaste for some of the questionable spending. Candidate Obama would welcome these bipartisan negotiations on such vitally important issues and also promised to bring such partisans together with a new pragmatic, post-partisan governance.

Instead of speaking out substantively with his vision of a bipartisan compromise in the Senate, Obama has chosen to retreat to partisan talking points coupled with a demand to pass the package immediately or face catastrophe.   By refusing to take a substantive stance of what a bipartisan compromise should look like, yet lambasting any opponents of the present Democrat-written bill, Obama has set a troubling model for future legislation that may require bipartisan cooperation to pass, such as immigration reform.

From this point forward for the Administration, we’ll be seeing less of the GOP-Obama meetings on substantive policy and more Obama speeches geared towards firing up his base and pushing the growth of his 13 Million person email list from the campaign.  Independents and centrists must give Obama credit for at least attempting to change the tenor in Washington over the past few weeks by engaging in outreach to Republicans and bringing GOP Senator Judd Gregg into the cabinet.   Unfortunately, Obama has chosen to avoid spending political capital to support and perhaps lead the bipartisan group of Senators to forge a centrist compromise by laying out a detailed vision of the final bill with input from the bipartisan group.   Instead, the bills written exclusively by ascendant Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid will very likely become law.

Beyond the perhaps inevitable end of the rhetoric of post-partisanship, the sad truth for fiscally conservative independents is that the largest spending bill in American history is going to be passed without the standard, lengthy scrutiny applied to normal appropriations bills and without any serious input from centrist politicians.  Many objective analyses of the present stimulus package recommend substantial reductions in questionable spending and other major alterations to maximize to possibility of actual job creation from the bill.   Rasmussen and Gallup polls show significant public support for such major changes.  Based on tonight’s speech, any such coolheaded, pragmatic reworking of the present package appears off the table, with perhaps a window-dressing compromise to “reduce” the outlay to around 800-850 Billion in the offing.

Obama’s return to partisan attacks on republicans and deployment of his speechmaking greatness to push the present stimulus package will likely blunt the faltering public faith in the entire enterprise.   The application of raw political power by Obama today teaches the moderates of the Senate, some of which formed the bipartisan group of 17 senators, that Obama will not support future pragmatic, centrist compromises but instead push the conventional democratic view.   The new lightening rod in partisan politics is the Democratic stimulus package, and the bill’s effect on the economy will dominate partisan debate for years to come as the Age of Partisanship begins again.

Tags: Add New Tag, Air Force One, Barack Obama, Bipartisan Compromise, Bipartisan Group, Bipartisanship, Clean Break, Distaste, Erosion, Media Focus, Open Question, Partisan Rhetoric, Partisans, Political Crisis, Presidency, Republican Opposition, Stimulus Package, Talking Points, Unpopular Aspects, Virtues, Williamsburg

Congratulations President Elect Barack Obama

As Ohio goes Democrat, Barack Obama has swept to victory tonight to seize the right to become the 44th President of the United States. CentristNet congratulates President-Elect Obama for his incredibly innovative and successful campaign and strong victory over John McCain. In the end, despite all the discussion of a new map, the same state that denied John Kerry victory four years ago awarded victory to Obama: Ohio. The Republican brand was so heavily damaged over the past four years that Ohioians and Pennsylvanians simply could not countenance another four years of GOP control of the Presidency.

The key issue for centrists now is how President Obama will govern. Independents and centrists are hopeful that Obama will choose to govern from the center, notwithstanding the leftist rhetoric that has sometimes emanated from Obama. A serious move to ratchet up federal control over the economy, such as nationalized health care, oil companies and/or auto companies, could deepen the ongoing economic slowdown. A centrist policy of keeping spending in check while avoiding large tax hikes would allow for a quicker recovery. Governing from the center would allow for recent gains in Iraq and Afghanistan to be consolidated and American military credibility to be enhanced upon those gains. A move to a quick withdrawal from Iraq would probably destroy the credibility built by our recent military success in Iraq and encourage other states to engage in military adventurism.

In the days, months and years to come, America will determine whether or not the vote for change, and Barack Obama, was a wise choice. Should Obama govern from the center in a pragmatic fashion, the Obama presidency would enhance American leadership of the world and solidify America’s place as the world’s leading power. If Obama goes strongly left, the Obama presidency could be seen historically as a turning point in world history when America went from being the exceptional leader to being just another country in a multipolar world.

Tags: 44th President, American Leadership, Auto Companies, Barack Obama, Centrists, Economic Slowdown, Independents, John Kerry, John Mccain, Military Credibility, Military Success, Nationalized Health Care, Ohioians, Oil Companies, Presidency, President Elect, President Of The United States, Vote For Change, Wise Choice, World History

Diebold Accidentally Leaks Results Of 2008 Election Early

Diebold Accidentally Leaks Results Of 2008 Election Early

A little humor for everyone while America votes in this historic election of 2008.

Tags: Barack Obama, Diebold, Election Results, Humor, John McCain, Leak, Leaks

November Surprise? Auntie Z Story Takes Dramatic Turn

As most of America knows, Barack Obama is now poised to sweep to victory with at least 300 Electoral Votes, holding a massive eight point lead on average nationally over McCain at this late date. Several stories have bubbled up in the past few days, such as Obama’s comments on the coal industry, his alleged crude gesture towards McCain at a rally today and the identification of his Aunt as living in Boston, albeit without Obama’s knowledge according to his campaign. However, none of these stories seem to have the sheer force to push McCain up the giant electoral hill facing him tomorrow.

A late breaking story today could make the next 24 hours much more interesting as explosive allegations were published today in the American Spectator regarding Obama’s Aunt Zeituni Onyango (”Auntie Z”) confirming that the Obama Campaign and Mass. Governor Deval Patrick had knowledge of her illegal status and willful violation of the 2004 deportation order as early as 2007. If true, such actions by the Obama campaign and Patrick could constitute criminal acts according to Section 1324 under 8 U.S.C.A. 1324 (a)(1)(A)(iii) and (v).

The main source on for the published article regarding the Obama campaign’s knowledge of Auntie Z’s situation is an employee at AKP&D Message and Media, which is a political consulting firm employed by the Obama campaign. A secondary source for the fact that the Obama campaign was well aware of the status of Obama’s family members is an Obama campaign media aide. The gist of the allegations is that in early 2007, David Axelrod, the crack chief strategist for the Obama campaign, ordered a full investigation of all of Obama’s family members to prepare/defend against possible political attacks regarding Obama’s family during the campaign.

Obama’s position is that he had no knowledge of Auntie Z’s status as an illegal alien:

KATIE COURIC: you have an aunt who’s been living in this country apparently illegally, and your campaign says any and all appropriate laws should be followed. So would you support her being deported to Kenya?

SEN. BARACK OBAMA: If she has violated laws, then those laws have to be obeyed. We’re a nation of laws. And, obviously, that doesn’t lessen my concern for her. I haven’t been able to get in touch with her. But, I’m a strong believer that you obey the law.

According the main source at OBama’s political consulting firm, AKP&D Message and Media, here’s how Obama’s campaign came into knowledge of Auntie Z’s status and how it was dealt with:

Axelrod had actual knowledge of Auntie Z and all other relatives in early 2007, and decided to use Deval Patrick as a monitor over Auntie Z to make sure she stayed out of trouble and out of the media’s eye:

Back in early 2007, as Obama’s chief campaign strategist David Axelrod was organizing and planning the Obama campaign, he identified Obama’s unique family situation — a number of half-brothers, sisters, aunts, uncles, some living overseas — as a potential problem, says an employee for Axelrod’s political consulting firm, and who has done work on the Obama campaign. “Given [Obama's] father’s family history here and in Africa, David wanted the campaign to know who was who, where they lived, and what they were doing. No surprises. We knew she was here illegally. We knew her income levels, but I don’t think anyone from the campaign had had contact with her.”

Instead, according to the source, Axelrod reached out to his former client, Patrick, who had retained Axelrod’s firm for his run for governor. Onyango was living in a state-funded housing project, “so Patrick’s people could just as easily keep track of things, and could do it without drawing a ton of attention,” says the AKP&D Message and Media employee, who requested anonymity as he hopes to get a job in an Obama administration should the candidate win. “If we had Obama people around, the media would probably have found her much sooner. She was in [Obama's] book, it wasn’t like she couldn’t be found.” Indeed, that is exactly how the London Times found her.

While the South Boston housing project is managed by the Boston Housing Authority, it is a state-funded facility, according to the BHA press office, and so it would not be uncommon for state housing officials to be on the grounds or in the area. “Patrick was the go-between, he’s trusted by David and Senator Obama,” says the aide.

An Obama campaign aide, the second source, at least partially confirms the AKP&D Message and Media employee’s account with respect to Axelrod’s knowledge of all Obama relatives:

Some Obama aides believe that Obama was briefed at least twice by Axelrod or campaign manager David Plouffe on the status of family members. “We tracked who was talking to the press, we kept in touch with some of these people,” says an Obama campaign media aide. “Anyone who thinks we didn’t doesn’t understand just how nervous we were about all of these people, particularly the members of [Obama's] father’s family. Axelrod had everything covered.” The aide said she was never present for such a briefing, but “we all knew the candidate’s family was being taken care of, to protect their privacy and try to contain any damage.”

To summarize, according to the two sources quoted by American Spectator, the Obama campaign was well aware of Auntie Z’s immigration status and presence in America in early 2007. Furthermore, if true, the Obama’s campaign used Axelrod’s client and Obama’s ally, Patrick, to keep watch over Auntie Z until after the election. The allegations of the two sources is confirmed in part by Auntie Z’s quoted response to the British press before they broke the story:

“I can’t talk about it, I just pray for him, that’s all,” she said, adding: “After the 4th, I can talk to anyone.”

It is well within the realm of possibility that Auntie Z would have only known to refuse comment if she was told to say that, likely by the Obama campaign. The two sources, Obama’s political consultant’s employee and the Obama campaign media aide, bolster this likely occurrance. The importance to tomorrow’s election becomes whether or not such agreement between the Obama campaign and Patrick to “monitor” Auntie Z until the election is a vioation of federal immigration laws, namely 8 U.S.C.A. 1324(a)(1)(a)(iii) and (v), which prohibit as a felony:

(a) Criminal Penalties
(1)(a) Any person who…
(iii) knowing or in reckless disregard of the fact that an alien has come to, entered, or remains in the United States in violation of law, conceals, harbors, or shields from detection, or attempts to conceal, harbor, or shield from detection, such alien in any place, including any building or any means of transportation;…
(v)(I) engages in any conspiracy to commit any of the preceding acts, or

(II) aids or abets the commission of any of the preceding acts,

If the Obama campaign had knowledge of Auntie Z’s immigration status in early 2007, and then Axelrod worked with Patrick to suppress any uncovering of such status since then, there is an arguable violation of the statute above as such actions would each constitute an individual act which “conceals, harbors, or shields from detection, or attempts to conceal, harbor, or shield from detection, such alien”, as spelled out in (iii) in the statute above. Any Obama campaign employees or Patrick staffers could be liable for conspiracy to commit violations of the Section 1324 and aiding and abetting violations of Section 1324 under subsection (v).

A review of case law regarding this matter tends to support the position that the Obama campaign’s activities, in conjunction with Mass. Governor Patrick, could have violated Section 1324. Indeed, the entire purpose of Axelrod’s alleged contacts with Patrick regarding Auntie Z was to suppress the public disclosure of Auntie Z’s illegal alien status and the lawful, immediate deportation under the 2004 Order. If true, the statements quoted in the American Spectator make out a prima facia case for a criminal indictment under Section 1324. As the 5th Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, U.S. v. Cantu, 557 F.2d 1173 (5th Cir. 1977) opines:

We agree with the conclusion in Lopez that section 1324 does not prohibit only smuggling-related activity, but also activity “tending substantially to facilitate an alien’s ‘remaining in the United States illegally.’ ” 521 F.2d at 441.

Jury instruction as to meaning of “shield.” Cantu requested that, in charging the jury concerning the meaning of “shield” as used in section 1324, the district judge include as a synonym the word “hide.” The judge declined to include “hide,” and Cantu contends that this refusal was error. Although “shield” and “hide” may in some contexts be synonymous, in the context of section 1324 they are not. Section 1324 forbids attempts “to conceal, harbor, or shield from detection.” Were “shield from detection” used synonymously with “hide” then “conceal” would be redundant. Therefore, the district judge did not err in omitting from his charge “hide” as a synonym for “shield from detection.”

If Axelrod coordinated with Patrick to keep watch over Auntie Z since early 2007, with knowledge of Auntie Z’s status as facing a deportation order, a prima facia case can be made under Section 1324 for a criminal indictment. Considering the seriousness of these allegations, CentristNet hopes that the mainstream media moves to ask these questions before America votes tomorrow. Moderate, centrist and independent voters will be on the edge of their seats to see what the Obama campaign and the mainstream media has to say about his interesting controversy.

The ultimate question is whether voters agree with Obama’s position that he had no knowledge of Auntie Z’s situation, or whether voters tend to distrust Obama’s position that he had no knowledge. Perhaps such issues will be irrelevant as Obama has promised not to speak wth the press until after the election. Regardless, the Auntie Z episode leaves many questions unanswered by the Obama campaign, and every centrist, independent moderate voter can only hope that the Obama campaign decides to provide information regarding their actions pertaining to Auntie Z prior to the election tomorrow.

Tags: American Spectator, Aunt, Auntie, Auntie Z, Barack Obama, Barack Obama, Breaking Story, centrist, Chief Strategist, Coal Industry, Criminal Acts, David Axelrod, Deval Patrick, Federal Immigration And Nationality Act, Governor Deval Patrick, Illegal Alien, Illegal Status, Immigration And Nationality, Immigration And Nationality Act, Immigration And Nationality Act Ina, independent, John McCain, Katie Couric, Late Breaking, Late Date, Main Source, Onyango, Political Consulting Firm, Secondary Source, Sheer Force, Willful Violation, Zeitnui, Zeituni Onyango

Greatest One Day Stock Rally in History - Will McCain or Obama Benefit?

Never in the history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average has the index risen more than 500 points in a single session. After last week’s historic largest weekly percentage loss ever, today the greatest one-day rally in the history of Wall Street occurred, with the Dow Jones average rising almost 1000 points to close at about 9400, up 11%. One key question on everyone’s mind tonight is whether the rally will last or if is the last gasp of the bull market that disappeared last week. The other key question is whether McCain can use this rally to get past narrative of defeat that has smothered his campaign since the crisis began.

Most political observers agree that the race between Obama and McCain for the presidency turned from a near dead heat in mid-September into a substantial 7 point Obama lead today because of the crash of the U.S. and world financial markets. The freefall in McCain’s popularity has been greatly assisted during the economic crisis by McCain’s early mishandling of the crisis via his oft-repeated line that “the fundamentals of the economy are strong.” Many independent and centrist voters were turned off by McCain’s stubborn refusal to accept the depth of the problems in the economy and now lean towards Obama.

The final straw to put many swing voters onto Obama’s side was the quarter ending 401K reports which show striking declines in most Americans’ retirement accounts that came in the mail in the past week or so. Whether the nearly 1000 point rally can turn this trend around will be determined in the days to come.

The onus is clearly on McCain to perform in the upcoming debate and use the turning economic news to his advantage quickly and perhaps avoid the imminent landslide facing him today. Obama can also point to his steady leadership as pleasing to Wall Street and further highlight McCain’s erratic performance in the past month.

Tags: 1000 point rally, Barack Obama, biggest rally, Centrist Voters, Dead Heat, Dow Jones, Dow Jones Average, Dow Jones Industrial, Dow Jones Industrial Average, economic crisis, Final Straw, Freefall, Greatest one day rally, History Of The Dow Jones, John Mccain, landslide, largest gain ever, Last Gasp, Mail, one day, Percentage Loss, Point Rally, Political Observers, rally, Retirement Accounts, stock market, Stock Rally, Stubborn Refusal, surge, Swing Voters

RICO Action To Be Filed Against ACORN Tomorrow

Over the past few days, the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now, or ACORN, has come under scrutiny across in a dozen battleground states regarding their voter registration activities. The most high profile government move to date in this election against ACORN is the FBI’s raiding of Nevada’s ACORN office last week. Today, the scrutiny on ACORN’s voter registration methods continued with election board hearings in all-important Cuyhoga County, Ohio, which encompasses Cleveland.

Tomorrow, the next shoe will drop as a lawsuit in Ohio will initiate a wide-ranging RICO action against ACORN and its subsidiaries. RICO is the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act and it provides for extended penalties for criminal acts performed as part of an ongoing criminal organization while also providing a civil cause of action for those injured by violations of the act. The “organization” is ACORN and its subsidiaries, and the criminal acts are the forgery of voter signatures as reported in various states nationwide.

The Obama campaign’s response to the GOP claims of ACORN ties has been uneven at best to date. First, via the “Fight the Smears” website, Obama claimed that he never trained any ACORN workers nor worked for or with ACORN at any time. Almost immediately, evidence of Obama’s representation of ACORN in a voter registration lawsuit in the mid-90’s and multiple published reports of Obama’s training of ACORN organizers surfaced, along with evidence of an $800,000.00 payment to an ACORN subsidary from the Obama campaign this summer. A video of Obama himself stating he’d worked side by side with ACORN for years and will do so indefinitely also reinforced his longstanding ties. Predictably, Obama’s website was then alterered to state that Obama was never a paid employee of ACORN, implicitly conceding the misrepresentations of the initial statement denying any Obama ties to ACORN.

With the new high profile RICO action coming tomorrow, “ACORNgate” could be the first major scandal of the general election. Before now, both Obama’s (Ayers, Wright, Rezko) and McCain’s (Keating) scandals have been rehashings from either the primaries or past campaigns. How the Obama campaign deals with the coming media firestorm tomorrow upon the filing of the action against ACORN could decide the election as ACORNgate may be the last, best chance for McCain to gain traction against Obama in the presidential race.

The effect on the presidential race is could be significant. Centrists and independent voters have little tolerance for explicit fraud by either side in electioneering. Obama is pulling away from McCain in the head-to-head national race presently, now standing at his highest lead of the campaign of about 7%. If McCain can effectively tie Obama to ACORN, those independents and centrists now leaning to Obama may take a second look at McCain and put the race back to a dead even contest going into the final few weeks of the campaign.

Tags: ACORN, ACORN gate, ACORNgate, action, Barack Obama, centrist, Cuyahoga County, Democrats, fraud, independent, John Mccain, lawsuit, moderate, Ohio, republican, RICO, scandal, tie, voter fraud, voter registration fraud, voters

Obama Buys Up Primetime on Networks as McCain Reaches Nadir of Campaign

In a stunning move only attempted once in presidential election history, the Obama campaign today finalized a deal to purchase an entire half hour block of broadcasting time from a major network. CBS sold Obama a half hour of time on Wednesday, October 29th, starting at 8:00PM. It appears Obama will present his closing argument to the American people in this fashion as negotiations are also ongoing with NBC and Fox for a similar half hour block of evening broadcasting.

The news of Obama’s strong network buy comes at time when John McCain’s campaign stands at its nadir and possibly its last legs. Three of the four debates are over, and both instant polls and later larger surveys of each debate show the public siding with the Democratic ticket. More troubling for the McCain campaign is the strong voter move to Obama over the past few weeks as world’s stock markets have steadily sold off with no end in sight. Indeed, today’s selloff of the Dow Jones Industrial Average pushed below 9000, the first time the Dow Jones has seen such depths since August of 2003, to close at 8,579.19. Over 20% of of the Dow Jones has been lost in the past seven trading days, nearing the 22.6% selloff on Black Monday in 1987.

Obama’s purchase of blocks of primetime network time follows in the footsteps of Ross Perot in 1992, the only prior presidential candidate to buy such half hour blocks of network time. In 1992, Perot purchased blocks of time on NBC and even beat some of the other networks for ratings at the time. Considering Obama’s popularity, Obama’s primetime show will undoubtably beat Perot’s numbers and perhaps all other competing broadcasting.

The move into blocks of network time comes on the heels of Obama’s purchase of an entire satellite channel, Channel 73, on the Dish TV network last week. Channel 73 is looping an effective two minute Obama economy ad entitled Barack Obama’s Plan for America. The fundraising advantage of the Obama campaign enables such large and unprecedented media buys and sets up Obama for a strong closing message.

Against that backdrop, the McCain campaign continued with a focus on Obama’s relationship with ex-terrorist William Ayers and explaining McCain’s debate night proposal to buy up mortgages directly and renegotiate them downward with the homeowners. Neither initiative appears to have picked up steam, and the media narrative continues to be dominated by discussion of Obama’s surge in popularity since the economic crisis began.

Centrist, independent and moderate voters are moving strongly towards Obama, and McCain has yet to find the right message to stem that tide. Considering the shocked reaction of many Americans to the recent stock market collapse, and Obama’s skillful linkage of this crash to the GOP as the market’s “final verdict” on GOP’s economic policies, no message may fit the bill for McCain.

McCain now stands nearly 10 points behind in most national tracking polls, with the esteemed Gallup tracking poll showing Obama with a commanding, campaign-best 11 point lead, 52-41%. State polls are following suit, with McCain at his lowest support level of the campaign in battlegrounds such as Virginia, Indiana, North Carolina, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. With only one debate to go and less than four weeks until election day, the McCain campaign is teetering on the edge of a collapse in support which would result in a electoral landslide not seen since Reagan’s victory over Mondale in 1984.

Tags: 1987, 1992, 8:00, ayers, Barack Obama, block, buy, CBS, collapse, dish tv, Dow Jones, economic crisis, FOX, historical, John Mccain, landslide, lowest, media, mortgages, nadir, NBC, network, perot, polls, primetime, purchase, selloff, stock market, support, tuesday

Obama Debate Gaffe - The U.S. Government Invented the Computer

Quick takeaway from the 2nd presidential debate - Obama claimed specifically that U.S. government invented the computer, and Obama was very wrong. The computer was developed over a long period of time, and by most historical accounts trace back to Europe with British and German inventors in the late 19th and early 20th century for the conceptual idea of a computer. For a functioning machine, most historical accounts point to a Iowa State University professor and his graduate student:

“I have always taken the position that there is enough credit for everyone in the invention and development of the electronic computer” - John Atanasoff to reporters.

Professor John Atanasoff and graduate student Clifford Berry built the world’s first electronic-digital computer at Iowa State University between 1939 and 1942. The Atanasoff-Berry Computer represented several innovations in computing, including a binary system of arithmetic, parallel processing, regenerative memory, and a separation of memory and computing functions.

Neither CNN, MSNBC nor Fox News have mentioned this so far. We’ll see if it develops in the days to come.

Tags: Barack Obama, computer, computers, debate, error, Gaffe, history, invent, invented, John Mccain, mistake, wrong

Banned SNL Video on Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac - Art Imitates Life?

Tags: Art Imitates Life, Bailout, banned snl video, Barack Obama, C Span, democratic party, Democrats, economic crisis, Fannie Mae, Flash Player, Frank, Freddie Mac, government bailout, John Mccain, Mac Upgrade, pelosi, Republicans, responsibility, saturday night life, Skit, SNL, Snl Video, soros, subprime, subprime mortgage crisis, Swfobject, Video Art, Video Web, Vids, Web Page

Palin, Biden Meet Expectations in VP Debate

Both candidates excelled in a night of debate filled mainly with recited stump speeches that were largely unresponsive to moderator Gwen Ifill’s questioning without any major gaffes. The key question going into the debate was whether Sarah Palin could reestablish her credibility after a series of missteps in interviews. Palin clearly met that bar and avoided what could have been a support meltdown on the Republican side if she had tanked.

Biden was knowledgable and forceful in his policy discussions, especially in the foreign policy discussions. Thematically, Biden did his job by linking McCain to Bush and demonizing Bush in an effective manner. Palin survived on foreign policy issues and excelled on tax and energy issues. Thematically, Palin did her job and by reinforcing McCain’s image as a maverick and linking Obama to higher taxes, more government and a loss in Iraq. From an objective point of view, both candidates did what they set out to do and the debate was essentially a tie.

The initial pundit reaction was predictable: CNN and MSNBC called it for Obama, Fox News called it for Palin. However, even the CNN “analysts” agreed that Palin swept aside credibility questions with her performance and boosted GOP morale and any threat of Palin “dragging down” McCain was erased. Predictably again, the focus groups set up by CNN and Fox News split in their reaction. CNN/Opinion Rsearch’s instant poll shows a 51-39 Biden victory, with 84% believing Palin exceeded expectations and 64% believing Biden exceeded expectations. with 55% Fox’s text message poll went for Palin, 86-12.

As for undecided voters, CBS’s poll of undecided went to Biden, 46-24%, with 55% stating their view of Palin improved. Importantly, CBS’s poll 18% of the undecideds are now committed to Obama, while 10% of the undecideds are now committed to McCain. If this takeaway from the VP debate holds, with Obama gaining more than McCain from undecideds, the McCain campaign will continue to slide in the polls.

Regarding the impact on the presidential race, most soft McCain voters who were concerned about Palin’s recent interview performances were likely part of the 84% in CNN’s poll who believed Palin beat expectations. The question becomes how independents and conservative Democrats react to the debate over the next few days. These groups strongly dislike Bush and Palin did condemn the Bush Administration several times and talked about looking to the future instead of backward.

With the second Obama-McCain debate set for a week from now, McCain is likely to become much more aggressive attacking Obama should the House pass the bailout package passed by the Senate yesterday. McCain has a set of commercials relating to the GOP’s version of the cause of the economic crisis - failure to control Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - set to be unleashed once the House acts.

The media often talks about the great Right Wing Attack Machine, and Hillary Clinton often warned that Obama would not be able to withstand a full-on assault. Expect the GOP and third party groups to unleash “Greek fire” on Obama on both the economic crisis and his character issues (Wright, Rezko, Ayers, Marshall, ACORN, etc.) as soon as the bailout passes. The only way that McCain can win this election at this point is to return the focus to a referendum on Obama’s fitness for office instead of the quality of the Bush years.

Tags: attack, Barack Obama, bush, bush clone, credibility, debate, Fannie Mae, gaffes, greek fire, Joe Biden, John Mccain, missteps, Sarah Palin, separate, stump speech, victory, vp debate