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Posts Tagged ‘Indiana Senate’

GOP Has Double Digit Lead in First Post-Bayh Retirement Indiana Senate Polling; UPDATE: Brad Ellsworth Officially in Senate Race

Friday, February 19th, 2010

Former GOP House Rep. John Hostettler Leads by Double Digits over Two Potential Opponents in the November 2010 Indiana Senate Race

A few days after Indiana Democratic Senator Evan Bayh rocked the Democratic Party via his unexpected announcement that he will not run in the November 2010 election, the first public polling released, from Rasmussen Reports, shows a strong double digit lead for both former GOP House Rep. John Hostettler and former GOP Senator Dan Coats over the two possible Bayh replacement Democrat nominees – Baron Hill and Brad Ellsworth:

As expected with incumbent Senator Evan Bayh’s surprise announcement this week that he will not seek reelection, Indiana’s U.S. Senate race is wide open. The three leading Republican contenders all post leads for now over the two most prominently mentioned Democratic hopefuls, but it’s not even clear if those Democrats are in the race.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely Indiana voters shows former GOP Congressman John Hostettler leading Baron Hill 49% to 31% and Brad Ellsworth 46% to 27%.

Former Senator Dan Coats, whose entry in the race has the blessing of the GOP establishment but has angered some Indiana Republicans, runs ahead of Hill 48% to 32% and ahead of Ellsworth 46% to 32%.

As of now, the DC and Indiana Democrats appear divided which candidate to support in the Democrat caucus process that will determine the Indiana Democratic Senate candidate for the general election, with the most mentioned possibilities being Baron Hill and Brad Ellsworth. The left wing new media, on the other hand, appears to be backing a celebrity candidate, rock star John Cougar Mellencamp, as Bayh’s replacement on the November 2010 ballot:

As Indiana Democratic leaders scramble to replace Evan Bayh in the US Senate race, one name is emerging from left field: rock musician John Mellencamp.

When questioned Wednesday, Mellencamp publicist Bob Merlis responded to the Monitor via e-mail this way: “As of now, there is no response.” The lack of an answer — which was the same given to the Indianapolis Star Wednesday — is helping the Internet rumor mill churn even faster.

Grassroots efforts are urging Mr. Mellencamp to take the leap. On MSNBC Tuesday, Katrina Van Heuvel, editor of The Nation, suggested that Mellencamp could be a “populist candidate” as someone “who worked very hard for farmers who faced foreclosures” and “a Heartland son of Indiana.”

While popular in Indiana, Political Science Professor Brian S. Vargus, of Indiana University, sees little chance of a Mellencamp victory in the November 2010 election. Hill and Ellsworth have their own problems, however, as Hill is on video harshly attacking his constituents at a health care town hall meeting and Ellsworth has problems with his base on LGBT issues.

On the Republican side, the battle between John Hostettler and Dan Coats should make for interesting political theater for the next few months in the run-up to the GOP Senate primary in May 2010. Of course, there will be no Democrat Senate primary, as no candidates qualified for the ballot, so the Hostettler-Coats race will garner higher interest from the public both before the primary and on primary day with possible crossover voters in what amounts to an essentially open primary process. Barring a wholesale shift in the national political environment, the May 2010 GOP Senate primary appears to be the key race this year in Indiana as whether Hostettler or Coats emerge victorious, in the post-Bayh environment the likelihood of a GOP Senate pickup in Indiana is very high.

UPDATE: The Washington Post reports that Ellsworth has officially thrown his hat in the ring for the Indiana Democratic Senate nomination, as to be determined by caucusing by the Indiana Democratic Party. Baron Hill was previously rumored to be the favorite of the White House so Ellsworth’s announcement today could set the stage for a bitter, behind the scenes fight between Hill and Ellsworth, although WaPo notes that the White House favors Ellsworth. Hill’s status is still unknown, and WaPo explains how the process of choosing a nominee will unfold:

Because no Democratic candidate filed the necessary signatures to qualify for the primary ballot, the 32-member Democratic state central committee will select the party’s candidate — although they cannot do so until after the scheduled May 4 primary. It’s also not clear whether any other Democrat will compete with Ellsworth for the Senate nomination; Rep. Baron Hill has expressed interest in a statewide race in the past.

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UPDATED – Evan Bayh Will Not Seek Reelection – Dems Face Tomorrow Deadline for New Candidate

Monday, February 15th, 2010

Indiana Democratic Senator Evan Bayh to announce retirement plans today

In a shock announcement set for later today, moderate Indiana Democratic Senator Evan Bayh will disclose that he will not seek reelection to the United States Senate in November 2010. Bayh’s retirement plans follow close on the heels of the announcement by House member Patrick Kennedy (D-RI) that he also will not seek reelection.

The Washington Post broke the story minutes ago:

Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh will not seek re-election this year, a decision that hands Republicans a prime pickup opportunity in the middle of the country.

“After all these years, my passion for service to my fellow citizens is undiminished, but my desire to do so by serving in Congress has waned,” Bayh will say.

Bayh will announce the decision at a press conference later today. He was first elected to the Senate in 1998 and was re-elected easily in 2004. National Republicans had recruited former Sen. Dan Coats to challenge Bayh in 2010 although polling suggested Bayh began the race with a 20-point edge. He also had $13 million in the bank at the end of the year.

Prior to being in the Senate, Bayh served two terms as governor of the Hoosier State.

Bayh points to his “waned” “desire” for “service to my fellow citizens” via service in Congress. The Scott Brown election to the Massactuetts Senate seat formerly held by Teddy Kennedy last month may have played a role in Bayh’s thinking. Considering the bankroll Bayh’s reelection campaign is carrying ($13 million) and his lead now in the polls, Bayh’s surprise announcement will surely be scrutinized by the political world for Bayh’s true rationale and the effects on politicians planning to remain in DC.

UPDATE: Ed Morrissey from Hotair.com (thanks for the link!) points out that the Democrats literally have only 29 hours from noon today to find a new candidate to file paperwork by tomorrow’s deadline for Indiana Senate candidates. Top candidates from a “reasonable bench” of Indiana Democrats:

Dems have a reasonable bench in the Hoosier State, and any of the 3 Dems who beat GOPers in ’06 — Reps. Joe Donnelly (D), Brad Ellsworth (D) and Baron Hill (D) — would fit the mold as centrists in a center-right state. Hill has said he is likely to run for GOV in ’12. Dems may also turn to ex-Gov. Joe Kernan (D) or ex-DNC chair Joe Andrew.

The Bayh news will surely lead the political news cycle for at least the next two days as the shock of Bayh’s sudden “waned” “desire” for “service to my fellow citizens” via service in Congress impacts the Democratic establishment in DC and the mainstream media while the drama of the impending 29-hour deadline for a new candidate plays out.

UPDATE #2: Speculation as to Bayh’s motives has turned to possible Bayh 2012 aspirations to challenge President Barack Obama in the Democratic Presidential primaries from the center-left. Bayh had been moving to distance himself from the Democratic health care reform initiative in the weeks after Scott Brown’s election in Massachusetts, going so far as to post on his official Senate website a call to avoid the use of reconciliation to pass health care reform:

Washington– Two centrist senators Tuesday threw up a roadblock to salvaging President Barack Obama’s health-care overhaul, as Democrats agonized over whether to push forward or shift to idle until political resistance subsides.

Sens. Evan Bayh, D-Ind., and Blanche Lincoln, D-Ark., both facing re-election this year in Republican-leaning states, said they would oppose the strategy Democratic leaders are considering to reconcile the House and Senate bills and put comprehensive legislation on Obama’s desk.

That approach involves reconciliation, a special budget-related procedure that requires only 51 votes to advance. The strategy to get around Republican opponents in the Senate would be a calculated risk sure to inflame critics on the political right.

“My concern is that if reconciliation is used, that will really destroy any prospects for bipartisan cooperation on anything else for the remainder of this year,” Bayh said. “That would be a regrettable state of affairs, something I think the American public would not react well to.”

Indeed, the day after the Scott Brown election shocker Evan Bayh plainly split with Obama by stating that whenever “you have just the furthest left elements of the Dem party attempting to impose their will on the rest of the country — that’s not going to work too well.” However, also about three weeks ago, Bayh specifically debunked rumors of a 2012 run:

Bayh said he wouldn’t challenge President Barack Obama for reelection in 2012 as an independent or Democratic candidate when asked by Fox News anchor Neil Cavuto.

“I’m not running for president, I’m trying to do what’s right for my state and our country,” Bayh said. “And I’m willing to work with the president, Republicans — anybody — to get that job done.”

It would be unusual though not unprecedented for a sitting senator to challenge a president of his own party. It would raise eyebrows for Bayh, especially, to do so, given the number of meetings he’s had with the president over the past year.

“I don’t know what to think of that, except the people who wrote that have too much time on their hands,” the Indiana centrist said. “I’m focused on one thing and one thing only: trying to do a good job of representing the people of my state.”

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