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Chance to Avoid Depression Spiral Expires Sunday Night – McCain, Obama and Bush Struggle to Cope with Historical Moment

September 25th, 2008 by AHFF Geoff

Obama, Bush and McCain meet

Obama, Bush and McCain meet


The presidential campaign hit overdrive yesterday as the candidates grappled over McCain’s surprise suspension of his campaign in the face of iffy prospects for a deal on the bailout this week. President Bush also weighed in with a primetime speech last night which warned of a deep recession without quick action on his request for authority to borrow $700 Billion to purchase “toxic” mortgage-related assets. Up in the air is whether the the bailout package that now appears inevitable will be sufficient to meet market expectations in the short term and, more importantly, a resolution of the housing crisis.

Should the bailout be watered down too much or not pass, America could see a historical market meltdown Monday morning and serious recession, if not depression. Worldwide, banks are hoarding cash and not making loans, even inter-bank loans, as the world waits for Washington to act.

McCain shook up the presidential election Wednesday afternoon by suspending campaign operations and planning a return to Washington to push a quick bailout package. McCain also stated he would not debate Friday night unless a deal is in place. On Tuesday, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and other Democrats called upon McCain to produce GOP votes for bailout package. Sources from both parties stated that McCain’s support for a bailout package is the only way Congress will act.

Reid immediately condemned McCain for “injecting presidential politics” into the bailout debate after McCain’s suspension annoucement. Obama and the Democrats aggressively pushed their message last night and today that McCain’s move was a sign of desperation and McCain should be able to “multitask” by both showing up at the debate and dealing with the bailout.

Congressional Democrats and Senate Republicans have announced a deal in “principle” has been reached, however, House Republicans disagree and are circulating their own proposal, which would only insure the purchase of the “toxic” securities by private companies. Democrats are presently feverishly pushing the idea that a deal is in place across cable media, while Republicans are stating that a resolution has not yet been reached.

After initial reluctance to come back to Washington after McCain’s request, Obama answered President Bush’s request to return to Washington for a meeting on the bailout today at 4PM. Team Obama has reportedly landed in Washington and the meeting will include congressional leaders, McCain, Obama and Bush.

The drama set to unfold today is unmatched in any recent presidential election and the stakes are high as centrists and independent voters are watching the candidates carefully. If McCain can deliver the House GOP votes, he may get credit from undecided voters who were concerned about the bailout stalling on Capitol Hill. Obama also could share in that credit if the final deal is made between the leaders at today’s meeting in the White House. Alternatively, if a bailout deal passes and the stock market again crashes before the election, both candidates will have little room to maneuver.

The early announcements by Democrats appear aimed to douse any positive reflection upon McCain’s intervention. Obama apparently plans to have a 90 minute town hall meeting if McCain does not appear for the debate. Whether the public sees McCain more positively as working to push the bailout package or negatively as skipping out on a debate is the open question which will surely impact the race. A flash poll done today shows a huge majority believes the debate should go forward. Tonight and tomorrow may well decide both the likely winner of the presidential election and whether the economy will continue to spiral downwards or pull out of the continuing liquidity crisis and inch towards recovery.

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