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Archive for February, 2010

UPDATED – Evan Bayh Will Not Seek Reelection – Dems Face Tomorrow Deadline for New Candidate

Monday, February 15th, 2010

Indiana Democratic Senator Evan Bayh to announce retirement plans today

In a shock announcement set for later today, moderate Indiana Democratic Senator Evan Bayh will disclose that he will not seek reelection to the United States Senate in November 2010. Bayh’s retirement plans follow close on the heels of the announcement by House member Patrick Kennedy (D-RI) that he also will not seek reelection.

The Washington Post broke the story minutes ago:

Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh will not seek re-election this year, a decision that hands Republicans a prime pickup opportunity in the middle of the country.

“After all these years, my passion for service to my fellow citizens is undiminished, but my desire to do so by serving in Congress has waned,” Bayh will say.

Bayh will announce the decision at a press conference later today. He was first elected to the Senate in 1998 and was re-elected easily in 2004. National Republicans had recruited former Sen. Dan Coats to challenge Bayh in 2010 although polling suggested Bayh began the race with a 20-point edge. He also had $13 million in the bank at the end of the year.

Prior to being in the Senate, Bayh served two terms as governor of the Hoosier State.

Bayh points to his “waned” “desire” for “service to my fellow citizens” via service in Congress. The Scott Brown election to the Massactuetts Senate seat formerly held by Teddy Kennedy last month may have played a role in Bayh’s thinking. Considering the bankroll Bayh’s reelection campaign is carrying ($13 million) and his lead now in the polls, Bayh’s surprise announcement will surely be scrutinized by the political world for Bayh’s true rationale and the effects on politicians planning to remain in DC.

UPDATE: Ed Morrissey from Hotair.com (thanks for the link!) points out that the Democrats literally have only 29 hours from noon today to find a new candidate to file paperwork by tomorrow’s deadline for Indiana Senate candidates. Top candidates from a “reasonable bench” of Indiana Democrats:

Dems have a reasonable bench in the Hoosier State, and any of the 3 Dems who beat GOPers in ’06 — Reps. Joe Donnelly (D), Brad Ellsworth (D) and Baron Hill (D) — would fit the mold as centrists in a center-right state. Hill has said he is likely to run for GOV in ’12. Dems may also turn to ex-Gov. Joe Kernan (D) or ex-DNC chair Joe Andrew.

The Bayh news will surely lead the political news cycle for at least the next two days as the shock of Bayh’s sudden “waned” “desire” for “service to my fellow citizens” via service in Congress impacts the Democratic establishment in DC and the mainstream media while the drama of the impending 29-hour deadline for a new candidate plays out.

UPDATE #2: Speculation as to Bayh’s motives has turned to possible Bayh 2012 aspirations to challenge President Barack Obama in the Democratic Presidential primaries from the center-left. Bayh had been moving to distance himself from the Democratic health care reform initiative in the weeks after Scott Brown’s election in Massachusetts, going so far as to post on his official Senate website a call to avoid the use of reconciliation to pass health care reform:

Washington– Two centrist senators Tuesday threw up a roadblock to salvaging President Barack Obama’s health-care overhaul, as Democrats agonized over whether to push forward or shift to idle until political resistance subsides.

Sens. Evan Bayh, D-Ind., and Blanche Lincoln, D-Ark., both facing re-election this year in Republican-leaning states, said they would oppose the strategy Democratic leaders are considering to reconcile the House and Senate bills and put comprehensive legislation on Obama’s desk.

That approach involves reconciliation, a special budget-related procedure that requires only 51 votes to advance. The strategy to get around Republican opponents in the Senate would be a calculated risk sure to inflame critics on the political right.

“My concern is that if reconciliation is used, that will really destroy any prospects for bipartisan cooperation on anything else for the remainder of this year,” Bayh said. “That would be a regrettable state of affairs, something I think the American public would not react well to.”

Indeed, the day after the Scott Brown election shocker Evan Bayh plainly split with Obama by stating that whenever “you have just the furthest left elements of the Dem party attempting to impose their will on the rest of the country — that’s not going to work too well.” However, also about three weeks ago, Bayh specifically debunked rumors of a 2012 run:

Bayh said he wouldn’t challenge President Barack Obama for reelection in 2012 as an independent or Democratic candidate when asked by Fox News anchor Neil Cavuto.

“I’m not running for president, I’m trying to do what’s right for my state and our country,” Bayh said. “And I’m willing to work with the president, Republicans — anybody — to get that job done.”

It would be unusual though not unprecedented for a sitting senator to challenge a president of his own party. It would raise eyebrows for Bayh, especially, to do so, given the number of meetings he’s had with the president over the past year.

“I don’t know what to think of that, except the people who wrote that have too much time on their hands,” the Indiana centrist said. “I’m focused on one thing and one thing only: trying to do a good job of representing the people of my state.”

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Obama Returns to Rhetoric of Bipartisanship, One Year Later; Reality Mixed

Monday, February 15th, 2010

A week and a year after formally eschewing bipartisan governance with his speech at the House Democratic Retreat on February 6, 2009, in the aftermath of Republican Scott Brown’s election to the Senate in Massachusetts, President Barack Obama has returned to the rhetoric of bipartisanship as a central focus. As the polls were set to close on Brown’s January 19, 2010 Election day shocker, Obama summoned his former campaign manager, David Pfloffe, to the White House for a lengthy meeting to plan a strategic response. It appears to this observer that Pfloffe’s strategy, as adopted by Obama in the past few weeks, is to have Obama use his personal charisma to talk up the themes of the 2008 campaigh: the need for “change” regarding partisan governance, “Washington’s ways” and the dominance of special interests.

According to post-January 19, 2010 Obama, all of the above problems in Washington can be solved if the GOP would just “come to the table” and negotiate bipartisan policies with a willing Obama. From a communications strategy viewpoint, it appears the Pfloffe bipartisanship strategy has been fairly successful, as it appears that Obama has stanched the bleeding somewhat as his recent fall in approval has slowed to stabilize at approximately 48-49% approval. The key question, of course, for a centrist observer of these events is whether Obama’s return to the rhetoric of bipartisanship will be matched by actual negotiations with the GOP that result in centrist policy proposals or just more advocacy of his present left-wing agenda. Indeed, as former Office of Personnel Management Director Capretta posits:

In the daily back-and-forth of political news coverage, it is easy to lose sight of what a stunning turnabout this renewed interest in bipartisanship represents for Barack Obama. For more than a year, his administration attempted to govern based on an entirely different approach. The Democrats in the White House and on Capitol Hill welcomed any Republican willing to jump aboard their legislative plans. But, as the president and his top advisers repeatedly said, they were going to move ahead with “their agenda” — with or without willing Republican participation.

Any discussion of Obama’s proclivities and bipartisan bona fides must begin and essentially end with a discussion of the signature issue of his Presidency: health care reform. The next major event in the health care reform debate is the President’s “Health Care Summit” designed by the Administration and set for February 25, 2010. The Administration has noted it will produce a “compromise” version of its health care reform legislation before the summit, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Leader Harry Reid, along with Administration officials, are negotiating that “compromise” version this week.

As it stands now, there is no GOP input into these final negotiations between Obama and Congress regarding health care reform. Indeed, as the Democrats are negotiating a “compromise” version of health care reform now, and will produce it prior to the 2.25.2010 Health Care Summit with the GOP, the likelihood of an true centrist compromise between liberals and conservatives seems highly unlikely.

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